1/23/2014: Iowa plus-minus data and observations (premium)

By Brendan Stiles

HawkeyeDrive.com

Prior to the start of Big Ten play, I assembled a post looking at plus-minus data not only for individual Iowa basketball players, but plus-minus data for each lineup used in games this season by Fran McCaffery and his coaching staff.

After Iowa’s first three Big Ten games, I posted this follow-up, the first of six that will be published before the Hawkeyes enter the Big Ten Tournament next March.

Iowa is now ranked 10th nationally one-third of the way through league play, so now is a good time to post the second follow-up in our season-long series.

Prior to the Hawkeyes’ game at then-No. 3 Ohio State, they had used a total of 111 different lineups through 16 contests. That number has again risen and is now 129 different lineups through 19 games, so 18 newer lineups have been used just in the last two weeks.

Before getting into individual plus-minus, below are what proved to be the most effective and least effective lineups for Iowa in its previous three games against Ohio State, Minnesota and Michigan.

Ohio State (1/12/2014):

Best lineup: Marble-Oglesby-Uthoff-White-Woodbury (8-3) (+5)

Time on court together — 2:32 (5:54-3:22; second half)

Iowa trailed 65-62 at this point in the game and this is when White entered the game for McCabe. The Hawkeyes took the lead during this stretch and didn’t look back. The highlight was a steal by Marble that led to a White dunk in transition that put Iowa ahead 68-65. There were a few other instances in this game where lineups compiled plus-4s, but this was the group that allowed the comeback to really take off.

Worst lineup: Marble-Gesell-Uthoff-McCabe-Olaseni (0-5) (-5)

Time on court together — 1:05 (15:46-14:41; second half)

This was the first group on the floor in the second half following substitutions with the starting five, who had just allowed Ohio State to take the lead early in the second half. During this stretch, the Buckeyes managed to extend their lead, which eventually got up to as much as nine points before the Hawkeyes came back to win. This lineup was short-lived because once Ohio State was ahead 50-43 at the 14:41 mark, McCaffery put Oglesby in and he went on to play almost 13 minutes straight.

Also worth mentioning is that this is the second time during Big Ten play (the other being when Iowa played Wisconsin) that this particular quintet was the Hawkeyes’ least effective.

Minnesota (1/19/2014):

Best lineup: Marble-Oglesby-White-Basabe-McCabe (11-2) (+9)

Time on court together: 2:12 (3:15-1:03; second half)

There were four different lineups used in the second half by Iowa that were plus-5 or better. The penultimate one used in the final minutes was statistically the best as it not only produced 11 points down the stretch, but also held the Golden Gophers to just two points. Highlighting this sequence was a 3-pointer by McCabe just before Marble and White were both taken out.

Worst lineup: Gesell-Oglesby-Marble-Basabe-McCabe (0-6) (-6); Marble-Gesell-Uthoff-White-Olaseni (2-8) (-6)

Time on court together: 0:57 (2:10-1:13; first half); 3:08 (9:15-8:48 first half; 9:27-6:46 second half)

The first of these two lineups only saw the court once together in the first half and was the group that allowed Minnesota to build its lead at the time up to double figures at 43-33. The second of these lineups was also a -6, but was used twice and was a -3 each time it was used. The first time it was used in the first half, it was very brief and Iowa saw an 18-16 lead evaporate. The second go-around, Iowa was up nine and Minnesota trimmed the Hawkeyes’ advantage down to 73-67 with 6:46 showing on the clock.

Michigan (1/22/2014):

Best lineup: Marble-Gesell-White-Basabe-McCabe (10-6) (+4)

Time on court together: 4:02 (7:50-4:43, 3:06-2:31, 1:05-0:45; second half)

This was a lineup used three times during the second half of Iowa’s game against Michigan. The third time around, it gave up four unanswered points to the Wolverines, but the first two times around, this was the group that enabled the Hawkeyes to get back within single digits.

Worst lineup: Clemmons-Oglesby-White-McCabe-Woodbury (0-5) (-5)

Time on court together: 1:03 (8:50-7:47; first half)

Up until this group was on the court together, Iowa had led the majority of the first half. The Hawkeyes were ahead 21-18 at the 8:50 mark and this was the first significant sequence in which Michigan took the lead and had enough momentum to force McCaffery into burning a timeout.

INDIVIDUAL PLUS-MINUS:

I have the following listed with each player here — the number of different lineups they’ve been part of thus far in 2013-14, their plus-minus and minutes played for the entire season, their plus-minus and minutes played through Big Ten play, and plus-minus and minutes played in the last three games played.

Couple of quick points: Like before, Marble still leads the team in number of minutes played, but Uthoff still has been involved in the most number of different lineups used by Iowa this season. Marble and Basabe were the only Hawkeyes to finish with pluses in Iowa’s 75-67 loss to Michigan. Clemmons has seen his number of minutes continue to decline and against Michigan, he only played one second in the entire second half.

Devyn Marble: 61/129 rotations

Season: 1,128-867 (+261) (521:11)

Big Ten play: 393-317 (+76) (187:28)

Last 3 games: 211-174 (+37) (96:26)

– at Ohio State: 72-62 (+10) (33:04)

– vs. Minnesota: 81-58 (+23) (31:25)

– at Michigan: 58-54 (+4) (31:57)

Aaron White: 63/129 rotations

Season: 1,052-811 (+241) (489:12)

Big Ten play: 390-315 (+75) (186:41)

Last 3 games: 191-166 (+25) (89:26)

– at Ohio State: 74-62 (+12) (32:00)

– vs. Minnesota: 61-39 (+22) (23:34)

– at Michigan: 56-65 (-9) (33:52)

Mike Gesell: 63/129 rotations

Season: 874-697 (+177) (422:52)

Big Ten play: 303-286 (+17) (155:21)

Last 3 games: 164-167 (-3) (82:55)

– at Ohio State: 53-57 (-4) (25:37)

– vs. Minnesota: 59-55 (+4) (27:48)

– at Michigan: 52-55 (-3) (29:30)

Jarrod Uthoff: 72/129 rotations

Season: 822-653 (+169) (384:47)

Big Ten play: 199-197 (+2) (111:49)

Last 3 games: 103-95 (+8) (52:56)

– at Ohio State: 59-42 (+17) (25:58)

– vs. Minnesota: 29-35 (-6) (17:05)

– at Michigan: 15-18 (-3) (9:53)

Melsahn Basabe: 50/129 rotations

Season: 748-608 (+140) (365:20)

Big Ten play: 265-233 (+32) (132:39)

Last 3 games: 135-135 (0) (69:07)

– at Ohio State: 39-40 (-1) (18:18)

– vs. Minnesota: 39-41 (-2) (18:24)

– at Michigan: 57-54 (+3) (32:25)

Zach McCabe: 52/129 rotations

Season: 721-510 (+211) (312:19)

Big Ten play: 200-161 (+39) (96:45)

Last 3 games: 109-91 (+18) (54:13)

– at Ohio State: 27-26 (+1) (16:33)

– vs. Minnesota: 56-32 (+24) (22:11)

– at Michigan: 26-33 (-7) (15:29)

Adam Woodbury: 40/129 rotations

Season: 636-488 (+148) (308:08)

Big Ten play: 178-154 (+24) (92:06)

Last 3 games: 86-82 (+4) (44:16)

– at Ohio State: 24-26 (-2) (13:13)

– vs. Minnesota: 28-19 (+9) (10:31)

– at Michigan: 34-37 (-3) (20:32)

Gabe Olaseni: 44/129 rotations

Season: 602-454 (+148) (289:23)

Big Ten play: 139-151 (-12) (78:57)

Last 3 games: 75-67 (+8) (36:30)

– at Ohio State: 29-26 (+3) (13:58)

– vs. Minnesota: 35-25 (+10) (15:28)

– at Michigan: 11-16 (-5) (7:04)

Anthony Clemmons: 59/129 rotations

Season: 617-456 (+151) (286:44)

Big Ten play: 77-94 (-17) (47:42)

Last 3 games: 21-30 (-9) (13:59)

– at Ohio State: 9-6 (+3) (4:54)

– vs. Minnesota: 7-13 (-6) (5:06)

– at Michigan: 5-11 (-6) (3:59)

Peter Jok: 51/129 rotations

Season: 422-309 (+113) (198:16)

Big Ten play: 24-24 (0) (14:33)

Last 3 games: 8-8 (0) (4:41)

– at Ohio State: DNP

– vs. Minnesota: 8-8 (0) (4:41)

– at Michigan: DNP

Josh Oglesby: 41/129 rotations

Season: 245-199 (+46) (114:59)

Big Ten play: 202-164 (+38) (94:08)

Last 3 games: 119-95 (+24) (55:19)

– at Ohio State: 34-23 (+11) (16:25)

– vs. Minnesota: 64-40 (+24) (23:35)

– at Michigan: 21-32 (-11) (15:19)

Kyle Meyer: 17/129 rotations

Season: 73-89 (-16) (48:04)

Big Ten play: 2-4 (-2) (1:19)

Last 3 games: 0-0 (0) (0:00)

– at Ohio State: DNP

– vs. Minnesota: DNP

– at Michigan: DNP

Darius Stokes: 13/129 rotations

Season: 60-78 (-18) (37:31)

Big Ten play: 2-4 (-2) (1:19)

Last 3 games: 0-0 (0) (0:00)

– at Ohio State: DNP

– vs. Minnesota: DNP

– at Michigan: DNP

Kyle Denning: 13/129 rotations

Season: 70-76 (-6) (40:13)

Big Ten play: 0-0 (0) (0:00)

Last 3 games: 0-0 (0) (0:00)

– at Ohio State: DNP

– vs. Minnesota: DNP

– at Michigan: DNP

Okey Ukah: 6/129 rotations

Season: 33-46 (-13) (24:52)

Big Ten play: 0-0 (0) (0:00)

Last 3 games: 0-0 (0) (0:00)

– at Ohio State: DNP

– vs. Minnesota: DNP

– at Michigan: DNP

Looking ahead:

Iowa’s next three Big Ten games are as follows: First, the Hawkeyes travel to Evanston, Ill., for a rematch with Northwestern on Jan. 25. Iowa’s next home game is Jan. 28 against No. 3 Michigan State, then the Hawkeyes go back on the road Feb. 1 to play at Illinois. Once again, I’ll update this data in 3-game increments, so the next plus-minus update will come following Iowa’s game in Champaign next week. Given what is known, here are some things to keep an eye on in each upcoming match-up.

Jan. 25 at Northwestern — Just like the previous time these teams met earlier in the month, this is a game where Iowa should fare well. Its most effective lineup against the Wildcats was its starting five and assuming the Hawkeyes don’t start off slowly here against a much-improved Northwestern squad, similar results should apply. This is the kind of match-up where guys like Marble and White specifically should have their way.

Jan. 28 vs. No. 3 Michigan State — This will be Iowa’s biggest game to date. Against an injury-riddled Michigan State squad, I see this one coming down to two things. The first is how well the Hawkeyes’ backcourt fares. These teams met twice last season (once in the Big Ten Tournament) and Marble missed the regular season match-up. In the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal, he and Gesell were both +3. In fact, Gesell is the only Hawkeye who was a plus both times Iowa and Michigan State met.

The other thing to keep an eye on will be how much Woodbury plays. If you recall the Big Ten Tournament contest, he was Iowa’s most efficient player (+9) despite only playing 13 minutes. As mentioned in previous posts, Woodbury’s value to this team is immeasurable when his minutes increase. If he stays out of foul trouble, this is the kind of game where Iowa could win should it manage to get at least 4-5 more minutes out of Woodbury. If Adreian Payne can’t go for the Spartans, they shouldn’t have an answer for him inside.

Feb. 1 at Illinois — There are three names to watch when the Hawkeyes face the Fighting Illini. White’s the obvious choice as one of those names. This is an excellent match-up for him since Illinois no longer has a guy like D.J. Richardson around and he was a +11 the only time Iowa and Illinois met last season. Along those same lines, this should also be a favorable match-up for Uthoff for similar reasons.

The third name to watch is Olaseni. If you recall that game in Iowa City last March, he was a shot-blocking machine. Anything Illinois got near the hoop, he managed to swat away. The encouraging sign with him right now is he’s becoming more efficient as the Hawkeyes get deeper into league play. If he can continue to show consistency with his efficiency, this is a game where Olaseni could make a huge difference and probably more of a difference as opposed to Woodbury, who will have more favorable match-ups ahead before this meeting at State Farm Center.