3/9/2014: Iowa plus-minus data and observations (premium)
Posted on 09. Mar, 2014 by admin in Iowa Basketball
By Brendan Stiles
HawkeyeDrive.com
Prior to the start of Big Ten play, I assembled a post looking at plus-minus data not only for individual Iowa basketball players, but plus-minus data for each lineup used in games this season by Fran McCaffery and his coaching staff.
Five follow-ups — after three, six, nine, 12 and 15 Big Ten games — have since been published and with the 24th-ranked Hawkeyes completing Big Ten paly, now is a good time to publish the sixth and final part in our series.
Prior to the Hawkeyes’ home game against Purdue, they had used a total of 162 lineups through 28 contests. That number continued to go up over the past week and after 31 regular season games, Iowa used a total of 175 different lineups, with 151 of those coming in non-garbage time minutes. In addition, McCaffery was successfully able to include at least one new lineup during all 31 of the Hawkeyes’ regular season contests.
Of the 13 new lineups, two were used in garbage time in Iowa’s loss to No. 22 Michigan State. Of the 11 that weren’t, six of them came in the regular season finale against Illinois.
Before getting into individual plus-minus, below are what proved to be the most effective and least effective lineups for Iowa in its previous three games against Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois.
Purdue (3/2/2014):
Best lineup: Gesell-Oglesby-Marble-White-Olaseni (12-8) (+4)
Time on court together — 4:30 (4:31-0:16, 0:15-0:00; second half)
This group essentially closed the game out. There was one second where Olaseni was taken out for McCabe and Iowa got two free throws out of it. But this is the lineup that allowed the Hawkeyes to remain ahead since they were up 69-68 when it first came together. Also worth noting that everyone sans Olaseni played a boatload of minutes during the second half.
Worst lineup: Gesell-Oglesby-Uthoff-McCabe-Woodbury (0-5) (-5)
Time on court together — 1:00 (12:33-11:33; second half)
This lineup was formed with Iowa up 60-57 and it was quickly done with after it allowed five unanswered points and let Purdue move ahead 62-60. Uthoff was taken out of the game completely after this, while McCabe only saw one more second and Gesell was then given a breather to allow Clemmons some playing time. Woodbury remained in up until the 4:31 mark.
Michigan State (3/6/2014):
Best lineups: Clemmons-Jok-Meyer-Basabe-Stokes (8-0) (+8); Gesell-Oglesby-Marble-Basabe-McCabe (9-4) (+5)
Time on court together — 1:00 (1:00-0:00; second half); 2:45 (4:20-1:35; first half)
The first group closed the game out during garbage time, so nothing much needs to be said there. As for the second group listed, it took the floor together when Basabe checked in for Olaseni and trimmed a six-point deficit down to one point, which eventually became a Hawkeye lead going into halftime.
Worst lineup: Clemmons-Oglesby-Uthoff-White-Olaseni (0-7) (-7)
Time on court together — 1:50 (13:23-11:33; second half)
This is when Marble was taken out to get a breather and Clemmons was inserted back into the game. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, this is also when this game began to completely get away from them as a two-point deficit ballooned back up to nine points and eventually became double digits.
ILLINOIS (3/8/2014):
Best lineups: Marble-Oglesby-Jok-Basabe-White (4-0) (+4); Gesell-Oglesby-Jok-Basabe-White (5-1) (+4); Gesell-Jok-Uthoff-White-Woodbury (6-2) (+4)
Time on court together — 1:52 (12:43-10:51; first half); 2:10 (10:51-8:41; first half); 2:45 (7:47-5:02; first half)
Three different first half lineups all put together +4s, including the first two that were played consecutively. Basically, these three lineups all allowed Iowa to overcome an early double-digit deficit and take a lead it would eventually carry with it into halftime. They also illustrate the role played by Jok in this game, as he played his most minutes during Big Ten play. The other constant was White, who was the only starter to register a plus.
Worst lineup: Marble-Gesell-White-Basabe-Woodbury (5-18) (-13)
Time on court together — 6:00 (20:00-16:58 first half; 20:00-17:02 second half)
The starting five was by far the least effective lineup in this game and played a role in the Hawkeyes losing this game. This group allowed Illinois to jump out to a 10-1 lead to open the game and then allowed the Fighting Illini to trim a five-point Iowa lead at halftime down to one point.
INDIVIDUAL PLUS-MINUS:
I have the following listed with each player here — the number of different lineups they’ve been part of thus far in 2013-14, their plus-minus and minutes played for the entire season, their plus-minus and minutes played through Big Ten play, and plus-minus and minutes played in the last three games played.
A few observations: First, the numbers over the last three games aren’t flattering by any means. In the loss to Michigan State, there were five players who finished with minuses that were in double figures.
Three reserves have also trended downward over this stretch where Iowa has lost five of its last six. McCabe still has the third-best plus-minus of any Hawkeye player over the entire season, but has now finished with a minus in five straight games. Also, Olaseni and Uthoff both finished with minuses over 18 Big Ten games. The Uthoff one is extremely alarming for two reasons: 1. His minutes have been somewhat limited. He actually had a +6 against Illinois (which snapped a five-game streak of minuses), yet didn’t play at all in the second half. 2. Over the course of the entire season, Uthoff essentially played starter’s minutes. Yet he finished with a minus in 11 of 18 Big Ten games.
On the plus side of things for Iowa, there’s Jok. Although he didn’t play against Purdue, he appeared in the Hawkeyes’ last two games and managed to finish with a plus over the course of Big Ten play after recording a combined +19 against Michigan State and Illinois. Now it’s worth noting the +7 he had against Michigan State came in garbage time. But something has clicked for him because against Illinois, Jok played double figure minutes for the first time since Iowa’s final non-conference game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and he had a +12. If he continues to be used and can remain effective during the Big Ten Tournament, that could be a very encouraging sign for Iowa going forward.
In terms of minute distribution, two noteworthy items. One is Woodbury moved back ahead of Olaseni in terms of minutes played over the entire season. The other is that Oglesby moved past Clemmons in minutes played despite missing all but one non-conference game.
Devyn Marble: 92/175 rotations
Season: 1,935-1,634 (+301) (926:01)
Big Ten play: 1,200-1,084 (+116) (592:18)
Last 3 games: 187-196 (-9) (98:16)
– vs. Purdue: 81-68 (+13) (37:22)
– at Michigan State: 64-75 (-11) (33:06)
– vs. Illinois: 42-53 (-11) (27:48)
Aaron White: 88/175 rotations
Season: 1,772-1,499 (+273) (861:47)
Big Ten play: 1,110-1,003 (+107) (559:16)
Last 3 games: 164-170 (-6) (93:20)
– vs. Purdue: 67-58 (+9) (33:52)
– at Michigan State: 41-58 (-17) (23:49)
– vs. Illinois: 56-54 (+2) (35:39)
Mike Gesell: 85/175 rotations
Season: 1,505-1,286 (+219) (740:55)
Big Ten play: 934-875 (+59) (473:24)
Last 3 games: 145-149 (-4) (83:33)
– vs. Purdue: 55-49 (+6) (26:57)
– at Michigan State: 38-43 (-5) (23:01)
– vs. Illinois: 52-57 (-5) (33:35)
Jarrod Uthoff: 89/175 rotations
Season: 1,154-991 (+163) (562:08)
Big Ten play: 531-535 (-4) (289:10)
Last 3 games: 70-73 (-3) (37:36)
– vs. Purdue: 30-34 (-4) (14:41)
– at Michigan State: 26-31 (-5) (15:07)
– vs. Illinois: 14-8 (+6) (7:48)
Melsahn Basabe: 68/175 rotations
Season: 1,071-940 (+131) (554:25)
Big Ten play: 588-565 (+23) (321:44)
Last 3 games: 74-74 (0) (43:48)
– vs. Purdue: 25-22 (+3) (12:27)
– at Michigan State: 32-29 (+3) (17:51)
– vs. Illinois: 17-23 (-6) (13:30)
Adam Woodbury: 57/175 rotations
Season: 983-833 (+150) (514:22)
Big Ten play: 525-499 (+26) (298:20)
Last 3 games: 88-108 (-20) (59:22)
– vs. Purdue: 34-33 (+1) (20:34)
– at Michigan State: 29-43 (-14) (18:17)
– vs. Illinois: 25-32 (-7) (20:31)
Gabe Olaseni: 60/175 rotations
Season: 1,039-881 (+158) (508:22)
Big Ten play: 576-578 (-2) (298:56)
Last 3 games: 99-114 (-15) (50:09)
– vs. Purdue: 47-43 (+4) (19:25)
– at Michigan State: 24-37 (-13) (14:44)
– vs. Illinois: 28-34 (-6) (15:00)
Zach McCabe: 65/175 rotations
Season: 1,081-830 (+251) (482:12)
Big Ten play: 560-481 (+79) (276:38)
Last 3 games: 66-78 (-12) (29:38)
– vs. Purdue: 23-24 (-1) (7:28)
– at Michigan State: 31-36 (-5) (15:07)
– vs. Illinois: 12-18 (-6) (7:03)
Josh Oglesby: 73/175 rotations
Season: 750-702 (+48) (372:12)
Big Ten play: 707-667 (+40) (351:21)
Last 3 games: 131-133 (-2) (71:59)
– vs. Purdue: 51-47 (+4) (24:43)
– at Michigan State: 42-52 (-10) (21:51)
– vs. Illinois: 38-34 (+4) (25:25)
Anthony Clemmons: 75/175 rotations
Season: 742-603 (+139) (355:43)
Big Ten play: 202-231 (-29) (116:41)
Last 3 games: 30-31 (-1) (15:27)
– vs. Purdue: 2-2 (0) (2:31)
– at Michigan State: 21-22 (-1) (9:31)
– vs. Illinois: 7-7 (0) (3:25)
Peter Jok: 65/175 rotations
Season: 473-359 (+114) (228:49)
Big Ten play: 75-74 (+1) (45:06)
Last 3 games: 33-14 (+19) (14:16)
– vs. Purdue: DNP
– at Michigan State: 9-2 (+7) (3:18)
– vs. Illinois: 24-12 (+12) (10:58)
Kyle Meyer: 19/175 rotations
Season: 81-93 (-12) (50:52)
Big Ten play: 10-8 (+2) (4:07)
Last 3 games: 8-0 (+8) (1:00)
– vs. Purdue: DNP
– at Michigan State: 8-0 (+8) (1:00)
– vs. Illinois: DNP
Darius Stokes: 19/175 rotations
Season: 71-89 (-18) (44:01)
Big Ten play: 13-15 (-2) (7:49)
Last 3 games: 9-2 (+7) (3:18)
– vs. Purdue: DNP
– at Michigan State: 9-2 (+7) (3:18)
– vs. Illinois: DNP
Kyle Denning: 14/175 rotations
Season: 70-80 (-10) (42:01)
Big Ten play: 0-4 (-4) (1:48)
Last 3 games: 0-0 (0) (0:00)
– vs. Purdue: DNP
– at Michigan State: DNP
– vs. Illinois: DNP
Okey Ukah: 6/175 rotations
Season: 33-46 (-13) (25:43)
Big Ten play: 0-0 (0) (0:51)
Last 3 games: 0-0 (0) (0:00)
– vs. Purdue: DNP
– at Michigan State: DNP
– vs. Illinois: DNP
Looking ahead:
Now Iowa has the Big Ten Tournament to get ready for and because of the five losses in their last six games, the Hawkeyes will now be playing in the first round. Over the coming days, HawkeyeDrive.com will break down each potential match-up in Indianapolis by examining the Hawkeyes’ most and least effective lineups versus each of the other 11 Big Ten teams over the course of conference play.
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